All opinions posted. None too pathetic or contrived. Everyone gets their say.

"...even the wicked get worse than they deserve." - Willa Cather, One of Ours

Monday, April 05, 2004

Private Guards Repel Attack on U.S. Headquarters

Washington Post

An attack by hundreds of Iraqi militia members on the U.S. government’s headquarters in Najaf on Sunday was repulsed not by the U.S. military, but by eight commandos from a private security firm, according to sources familiar with the incident.
Before U.S. reinforcements could arrive, the firm, Blackwater Security Consulting, sent in its own helicopters amid an intense firefight to resupply its commandos with ammunition and to ferry out a wounded Marine..

...Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, and spokesman Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt arrived to survey the battle zone.

Without commenting at a news conference yesterday on the role of the Blackwater guards, Kimmitt described what he saw after the fighting ended. "I know on a rooftop yesterday in An Najaf, with a small group of American soldiers and coalition soldiers . . . who had just been through about 3 1/2 hours of combat, I looked in their eyes, there was no crisis.

"They knew what they were here for," he continued. "They'd lost three wounded. We were sitting there among the bullet shells -- the bullet casings -- and, frankly, the blood of their comrades, and they were absolutely confident."...

...The four men brutally slain Wednesday in Fallujah were also Blackwater employees and were operating in the Sunni triangle area under more hazardous conditions -- unarmored cars with no apparent backup -- than the U.S. military or the CIA permit.

One senior Blackwater manager has described those killings to U.S. government officials as the result of a "high-quality" attack as skilled as one that can be mounted by U.S. Special Forces...

...Blackwater, a security and training company based in Moyock, N.C., prides itself on the high caliber of its personnel, many of whom are former U.S. Navy SEALs. It has 450 employees in Iraq, many of them providing security to CPA employees, including the U.S. administrator, L. Paul Bremer, and to VIPs visiting Iraq.

Blackwater has applied to occupy a former MIG air base near Baghdad as a counterterrorism training facility for Iraqi forces. The training range will mirror the 6,000-acre Moyock site, which is frequented by U.S. law enforcement and military personnel.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A53059-2004Apr5.html

National Scurity as an Issue in the Election


If the election were held today Bush would be reelected. It wouldn’t be a landslide, but he would win.

No matter how vigorously the media pound out a negative message on Bush's policies. No matter what examples of outright incompetence and corruption are exposed. (Did everyone see the mine safety story on 60 Minutes on Sunday night? Good God!) No matter that we are in the middle of a seemingly never ending war. No matter how strongly Democrats hate Bush's guts. No matter...well, none of these things are likely to have much impact on Bush’s reelection.

In particular, why am I unimpressed by negative stories about terrorism and war policy?

I am unmoved because the voting public just doesn’t care about this. More importantly, people just don't vote based on these factors. They never have and they aren't going to start now. Unless there is some catastrophic horror such as 12 years of grinding war in Vietnam (and even here Nixon got reelected), foreign policy issues will have no effect on the election. Even today, most voters couldn't find Iraq on a map. Sad, but true.

Let me give you an example of why I think the Clarke story is bad news for Democrats.

New York is a lock for the Dems. On the other hand, Washington State is a Democratic leaning toss-up state, so I have been witness to the Bush campaign at work in a way that most people have not. And I suspect that most national reporters don't live in areas where these ads are being shown 4-5 times a day. They don't really feel the impact. I don't watch that much TV, but in the last 3 weeks I have seen somewhere between 40-50 Bush ads on TV. I kid you not. And they are not the same ones every time; I have seen 8-10 different commercials. Whatever he is paying his ad people, it isn't enough. His commercials are brilliant: clear, very negative and often quite funny. Factually they are complete nonsense. But do you remember "It’s Morning in America" -- facts have got nothing to do with good political ads.

During this period Kerry's nationwide numbers have taken a slight fall due to this media blitz. In states like NY and CA Kerry has either gained or stayed the same. But in the swing states that are seeing these commercials his poll numbers are crashing. At a time when Kerry should be making gains he is instead losing ground. It is quite clear that taking a vacation at this time was a really stupid idea.

That is one of the reasons why I am furious about Clarke's nonsense. It is a pointless distraction that Democrats cannot afford. Every moment Clarke spends preening himself on TV, or some pundit goes on at length defending or attacking Clarke, this is time that is taken away from Kerry’s campaign. This is not a neutral effect. Clarke eating up the public discourse hurts Kerry. Over the last few weeks it has been killing him. Read the polls. Clarke's issues aren't reaching the voters. It is just too complicated and difficult to grasp. It is way too much "tone and nuance".

Put yourself in the place of a typical swing voter. This voter thinks very simply about these issues. Let's ask him some questions.

Q. Is Bush weak on terrorism?
A. No way.
Q. But Bush did this wrong, and Rumsfeld made this bizarre comment, and some smart and experienced guy said Bush wasn't doing a good job!
A. Wow, really?
Q. So now that you've heard this, how do you think Bush is doing on national security?
A. Bush is a hard-ass. I like that.

It doesn't matter if Clarke's story is true. To the average swing voter it just doesn't sound true. It sounds like nonsense.

Playing up Clarke's issues is not just ineffective. In fact it is a net negative. The Average Swing Voter just doesn’t get enough in-depth news, or have the time needed to assess it. For Average Swing Voter, issues have to be simple: defense-strong, taxes-lower, gay marriage-no, health care-more and cheaper, corrupt CEOs-crack down hard, etc. To these crucial voters, accusing Bush of being weak on terrorism makes the accuser sound like a total fool. It just does not compute with Average Swing Voter’s perception of the real world, and there is no practical way to convince him otherwise.

The only way Kerry can gain any traction on national security policy is the same way it has always been done. Kerry has to go Super-JFK on Bush. He has to be MORE hawkish than Bush, not less.

If Kerry argues:
"Bush is doing a bad job on security. Clarke and the other critics have made some good points about the Bush administration foreign policy. The Bush administration screwed up and now they are lying about it. Elect me and I will be more reasonable and steadfast on national security."
Average Swing Voter will respond:
“YAWN. Really? Good for you. What's on TV tonight?”

If instead Kerry argues:
"Bush isn't doing a good job because he is not doing enough. We need to really crack down on the terrorists. I am going to spend more on Homeland security. I am going to build up the size of the Army. I am going to spend a zillion more on intelligence and really cut loose on covert ops. I am going to CLOSE THE MISSILE GAP AND TURN BACK THE COMMUNISTS HUNT DOWN EVERY LAST TERRORIST AND MAKE AMERICA STRONG AGAIN!"
Average Swing Voter will respond:
“Wow! What a hard-ass. I like that.”

As policy it may be infantile. But as politics, it is the only way national security issues can have a positive impact for the Democrats.

Otherwise, every time Kerry mentions national security he reminds the public that Bush is a "War President". He winds up helping Bush without doing himself any good.

Kerry won't be able to gain points harping on national security issues. The voters don't vote on these issues. For Kerry the war is a losing issue. Terrorism is a losing issue. Homeland defense is a losing issue. Even a massive failure such as a big terrorist attack just before the election will only make Bush's margin bigger.

Back in the real world, Kerry has a lot of work to do. While Kerry's war record immunizes him on the charge of being weak on defense, it also doesn't help him much either. The fact is that Kerry is in trouble. I am not even sure how he can run on the economy (excepting for outsourcing and corporate malfeasance). Look at the big numbers that people know about. Unemployment is low (5.7%), interest rates are low (5%), and inflation is nearly non-existent (2%). In this case, unless people are personally unemployed, know someone who is unemployed, or thinks they are going to soon be unemployed; it will be very difficult to reach them. And the polling numbers on job uncertainty have been going down steadily for a year now.

Kerry needs to start building a big lead NOW! This is urgent because if Kerry doesn't hold at least an 8-10 point lead by the end of the Boston convention, he will have zero chance of beating Bush in November. But instead of covering Kerry's return to the campaign trail, this week's news will be all about Rice's testimony. This is a vital opportunity wasted. Kerry just can't afford to waste his precious media time on Clarke's megalomania.

Cleric: Iraq's Sadr Turns Down Elders' Peace Appeal

Reuters

Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has turned down an appeal by Iraq's powerful Shi'ite Muslim establishment to renounce violence, a leading cleric said Monday.

An aide to Mohammad Bahr al-Uloum, a member of the U.S.-installed Iraqi Governing Council, said Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, regarded as Iraq's most powerful cleric and a rival of Sadr's, supported the Iraqi seminary's appeal.

"The Hawza (seminary) is unanimous on this," the aide said.

"We asked Moqtada (al-Sadr) to stop resorting to violence, occupying public buildings and other actions that make him an outlaw. He insists on staying on the same course that could destroy the nation."
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?
type=worldNews&storyID=4754768§ion=news

Iraqi polls bring secular success

Guardian
Local Government Elections in Iraq

...The poll was the latest in a series which this overwhelmingly Shia province has held in the past six weeks, and the results have been surprising. Seventeen towns have voted, and in almost every case secular independents and representatives of non-religious parties did better than the Islamists.

...“This is a free election,” said Jawad Khadum, a teacher in Tar. “We want more of them, for example in our teachers’ union and for the mayor.”

Like many professionals, he was worried by the way some religious parties had been throwing their weight around, trying to close shops which sell alcohol and pressing every woman to wear a veil. He saw the vote as a chance to stop this, he said...
This is part of the reason for Sadr's uprising. The radical Shia clerics have come to realize that if elections come to pass they will lose, and lose in a big and very embarrassing way.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/
0,3604,1185644,00.html

Contractors

Dagger JAG

...We have been dealing with the legal issues surrounding contractors for quite a while. In recent years the army has become more and more reliant upon contractors to do almost anything and everything for us when deployed. It really began getting big during Bosnia and Kosovo where all the basecamps and logistics functions were handled by KBR. But that really was a permissive environment compared to Iraq and the contractors were not as much at risk as they are now. We've received a number of requests from contractors to carry weapons. Not all of them are allowed to. International law prevents us from arming civilians accompanying the force. They are non-combatants who are not supposed to carry arms or wear a uniform. If we give them weapons and training then their status is even murkier. There is NO protection under international law for armed civilians in a combat zone, with one minor exception for a Levee en Masse. Otherwise they are unlawful combatants. (Note this is the same rationale applied to the detainees in Guantanamo and the reason they are called unlawful enemy combatants. We caught them in civilian clothes fighting us.) In the case of the four contractors that were killed in Fallujah. They were authorized to carry weapons since they were hired as security contractors. The authorization has to come from very high up the chain of command but they work with no legal authority. They have weapons permits that allow them to carry their weapons but they really are in no way connected with the military. This is a very tricky legal issue since the military really can't do what we're doing without contractors but we really aren't allowed to let them protect themselves.

The Geneva conventions were designed to protect civilians and soldiers on both sides of a conflict. The assumption is that both parties to a conflict will observe the rules and regulations. In Iraq it is patently obvious that our enemies have absolutely zero regard for international law. So it is a bit ridiculous for us, in this circumstance, to prevent the civilians working for us to protect themselves.
http://daggerjag.blogspot.com/
2004_04_01_daggerjag_archive.html#108107698369672805

malaria pills

Dagger JAG (US Army JAG in Iraq)

...We were issued malaria pills yesterday. I remember a while ago when they were blaming the deaths in Fayetteville on malaria medicine. I honestly don't know whether there's any truth to that allegation. They took blood from all of us before the deployment to check if we could take the malaria medicine safely and apparently I'm good to go. I have to take one pill of chloroquin once a week. They had us read a packet describing the reasons for the pills and the possible side effects. Malaria will cause nausea, headaches, sweating and fevers. They said the possible side effects of the pills are nausea, headaches, stomach cramps and fever. Now, this just seems a bit odd to me, taking medicine that creates the same symptoms as the disease. I pointed this out to the medic but she just told me to take the pill with food to decrease the risk of symptoms and stop being a smartass.
http://daggerjag.blogspot.com/
2004_04_01_daggerjag_archive.html#108106331738817850


A coup d'etat is taking place in Iraq a the moment.

Healing Iraq (Sunni Iraqi Dentist fm Baghdad)

A coup d'etat is taking place in Iraq a the moment. Al-Shu'la, Al-Hurria, Thawra (Sadr city), and Kadhimiya (all Shi'ite neighbourhoods in Baghdad) have been declared liberated from occupation. Looting has already started at some places downtown, a friend of mine just returned from Sadun street and he says Al-Mahdi militiamen are breaking stores and clinics open and also at Tahrir square just across the river from the Green Zone. News from other cities in the south indicate that Sadr followers (tens of thousands of them) have taken over IP stations and governorate buildings in Kufa, Nassiriya, Ammara, Kut, and Basrah. Al-Jazeera says that policemen in these cities have sided with the Shia insurgents, which doesn't come as a surprise to me since a large portion of the police forces in these areas were recruited from Shi'ite militias and we have talked about that ages ago. And it looks like this move has been planned a long time ago.

No one knows what is happening in the capital right now. Power has been cut off in my neighbourhood since the afternoon, and I can only hear helicopters, massive explosions, and continuous shooting nearby. The streets are empty, someone told us half an hour ago that Al-Mahdi are trying to take over our neighbourhood and are being met by resistance from Sunni hardliners. Doors are locked, and AK-47's are being loaded and put close by in case they are needed. The phone keeps ringing frantically. Baghdadis are horrified and everyone seems to have made up their mind to stay home tomorrow until the situation is clear.

Where is Shitstani? And why is he keeping silent about this?

I have to admit that until now I have never longed for the days of Saddam, but now I'm not so sure. If we need a person like Saddam to keep those rabid dogs at bay then be it. Put Saddam back in power and after he fills a couple hundred more mass graves with those criminals they can start wailing and crying again for liberation. What a laugh we will have then. Then they can shove their filthy Hawza and marji'iya up somewhere else. I am so dissapointed in Iraqis and I hate myself for thinking this way. We are not worth your trouble, take back your billions of dollars and give us Saddam again. We truly 'deserve' leaders like Saddam.
UPDATE - Zeyad added this update later:

Sorry for the depressing note. It seems like everything is back under control, at least from what I can see in my neighbourhood. There is an eerie silence outside, only dogs barking. Until about an hour ago, it sounded like a battlefield, and we had flashbacks of last April. I don’t know what happened, but there were large plumes of smoke from the direction of Adhamiya and Kadhimiya. I wanted to take some pictures but my father and uncle both said they would shoot me on the spot if I tried, they were afraid the Apaches would mistake us for troublemakers and fire at us. I’m dreading tomorrow.
http://healingiraq.blogspot.com/archives/
2004_04_01_healingiraq_archive.html#108119342331870845

Rwanda attacks global inaction on genocide

Blacfive
...One of the darkest marks on this country and the world is the 1994 slaughter of almost one million Tutsi Rwandans. After swearing "NEVER AGAIN!" in reference to the Holocaust (a U.N. Convention for all countries to stop genocide), the world stood by and simply watched. We. Simply. Watched.

Well, everybody just watched except for France. That's right. France.

But it's not what you think. France armed the Hutu's who were committing the genocidal murders. Then, the French government sent troops to create a safe zone. And the genocide continued in the French safe zone.

There is plenty of blame to go around. Too many lawyers in our own government prevented anyone from using the word "genocide" because it would legally cause us to commit troops to stop the violence. Too many politicians used words like "not in our national interests" and failed to commit immediate resources to the U.N. Director of Peacekeeping, Kofi Annan. Canadian General Dallaire begged, BEGGED, for armed troops. Instead, he received tens of unarmed observers - observers that were killed whenever they tried to stop the maddness. Observers that were ordered by the U.N. to not intervene (ten Belgian soldiers were mutilated, tortured and killed trying to stop the murder of a moderate politician).

We promised fifty armored personnel carriers and took three months to deliver them. By that time, over 800,000 were dead (new estimates are about 930,000).

A good friend of mine was working for the war planners in the Pentagon. The warriors had estimated that three infantry battalions from the 82nd Airborne or the Marines could have saved, at least, half of the victims. That means that the Pentagon believed that, by the time we could put boots on the ground, we would have been able to stop the genocide. Of course, we would then be committed to send more troops to maintain the peace and provide medical and logistical support (total troop strength was tagged at about five thousand). Still, we did nothing.

The people that I believe are most responsible:
Kofi Annan who after this stellar performance in Rawanda as Director of Peackeeping became the U.N. Secretary General.
Madeleine Albright, our spineless U.N. Ambassador, who became our Secretary of State.
Bill Clinton, our President who said, in a speech at the Naval Academy in reference to Rwanda, that we would not get involved in conflicts outside of our national interests (due to Moghidishu).
François Mitterand, President of France.
http://www.blackfive.net/main/2004/04/10th_anniversar.html

Reason


"It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of what he was never reasoned into."

Jonathan Swift