One of Ours

...I don’t presume to be able to give a knowledgeable critique about U.S. and Allied strategy, like everybody seems to be fond of doing nowadays (and there doesn’t seem to be a shortage of Gurus of the subject). Firmness would have been much easier to apply at a much earlier stage. When I say “Firmness”, it must not be construed to mean brutality. Nevertheless, and undeniably, the use of force is part of the thing, but it must be precise, measured and proportionate. This, of course, is almost stating the obvious.

One thing is fundamental though: Once you start exercising firmness it will be disastrous if you falter and show weakness again. Diplomacy and politics are essential of course, but the arguments of the strong are always much more convincing. In any case I ask all our friends not to be too emotional and weak stomached, and above all not to help the enemy in what he is desperate to achieve, i.e. defeatism and despair...

...Again the terrorist media Al Jazeera and Al Arabia TVs showed the two tapes for some thugs holding knifes and threatening to kill innocent Japanese in the name of Islam. Islam has nothing to do with the criminals who use its name for their own purposes. Islam means peace and the way these criminal terrorist use have nothing to do with it but with the devilish way of the Wahabist and other terrorists in the region and the world. Strict measure should apply on all non-respected terrorist supporter Arab media and the BBC Arabic service...

...He was recently bitten by a camel spider which was hiding in his sleeping bag. I thought you'd like to see what a camel spider looks like. It'll give you a better idea of what our troops are dealing with. Enclosed is a picture of his friend holding up two spiders.

...for sure I wasn’t the only Iraqi who did so, because I so streets full of cars and people, I cant say it was as normal as it was ten days ago, but people are trying to act normal.

Today I attended my building site and met with my Sadir city workers who still come to work and they are being more convinced every day that the coalition is trying to eliminate only trouble makers.

From my meetings with Iraqi people I can feel more people are convinced to stay away from clashes and troubles by staying home and not to get out only for urgent matters and leave the coalition and IPs to do their job.

I came to office today after a car drive in Baghdad (Karada, Dora, Jadriya, Mansor, Bayaa) and all those places were normal but not crowded as they were. But I heard about clashes in Adhamiya.

I don’t like being only a reporter, but it’s important to give a true picture about the situation just to equalize the bad reports on TV stations. I saw some yesterday (and guess what TV station) as usual Arabiya, Who were putting a report about Faluja with pictures full of armed men with black clothes and Mullahs and Sadir pictures, Which means the pictures were from Sadir city not from Faluja, besides more unfinished speeches form Iraqi people. Changing facts is an art for them. I know some would say why you watch these stations?, actually I don’t, I watch Hurra TV, but we must know about the enemy too...

Well. Very quiet. The bad guys promised to attack and occupy the Green Zone, take over the major cities and storm the Sheraton hotel.

I was on the back veranda of the Palace after supper when we heard the mortar fired across the river to our right. Stood there for a bit & then heard it land off to our left. Later we determined that it landed near the Sheraton. So all last night we saw repeated film of one darn mortar hole at the tennis courts next to the Sheraton. Over & over. Then the announcers ask various talking heads – Is it over? Have we failed?

One mortar produces a lot of gloom & doom...

...The foreign press is at the Sheraton so the bad guys were going to storm it. New principle of war: Don’t attack the military – attack the press.

Also the Iraqi police were broadcasting from their cars that anyone seen on the streets with an AK would be shot. No warning...

...Iraqi security. Still doing fairly well. Not perfect & we will keep training more to bring them up to strength. But, again, not the gloom and doom that is preached on US TV.

Coalition has retaken many cities. Some interesting sights as the main population is glad to get rid of the thugs that brought about the latest violence.

But then, that's now a sound bite or film clip.

Anyway, it was a good Friday.

When I got up this morning, my LA Times was at the door with the headline "Thousands in Fallouja Flee; Council Totters". Good thing there's no exclam after "totters," I thought, then we'd really be in trouble... at which point I tossed aside the newspaper without reading it and turned on the computer for the Iraqi blogs. After all, why get my news from people who a. don't speak Arabic, b. don't really know the country and c. have gleaned most of their information from official sources like the military and government spokespeople and are naturally skeptical of them (I would be too, but so what?)?

My first stop was the blog Iraq the Model, where I have gone often in recent days. Do I know who they are and what their biases are? Not really, but everyone's biased and at least the people here are knowledgeable. In any case, the person signing his name Ali today is placing the current violence in a context that is part of split in the Shia movement going back to the Seventh Century, between those who rely to some extent on God's will for power (the Sistani people) and those who take a more Maoist-barrel-of-a-gun view of God's will (the Sadir people). Taking the historical view, Ali has the most optimistic vision of the current situation. He concludes (but you should read it all for the background):

So what's good about this riot? As I said this is a very old dream that is strongly rooted to the conscience of the majority of the Shea'at. And with the freedom of speech and with the defeat of the Arab Sunni and with the support and motivation from Iran, this was bound to happen. It could've been worse if a leader with more brains and popularity than this clown carried it.

This riot should be and will be crushed sooner or later, because of the ignorance of the leadership and the lack of support of the majority of Iraqis including Shea'at which made those fanatics resort to terrorizing the people to show that they have the support of the Iraqis like their demand for a general strike which was associated with clear threats.

Another good outcome of this riot is that it showed that the influence of clerics including Sistani, is much smaller than they and their followers were claiming. I've heard it from most of the Shea'at that the whole Iraq supports Sistani and that the Americans don't dare to defy him! They really believed their illusions. Now it appears that the fatwa of Sistani didn't have any significant effect on the Americans' determination to end this riot, nor it convinced the fanatic Shea'at to stay calm. Even the GC paid no attention to him and showed readiness to use force if it is needed.

When this riot will be crushed, and it will be, Sistani and all the clerics will no longer seem as strong as they seemed before, and once they see the 'wholly' name Al-Sadir in handcuffs, they will think a million times before committing a similar stupidity in the future. Even some members of the GC with its religious, tribal and ethnic composition, proved to be short of meeting the challenge. This should clear the political field from these traditional representatives of the Iraqis and surly Iraqis in the future will be forced to search for alternatives once they realize how hypocrite, feeble and lacking their current leaderships are.

This will certainly not happen tomorrow, nor will it happen soon after crushing this riot, but certainly the results will make Iraqis aware of the fact that their leaders are actually not as smart and strong as they look, and that their religious, tribal and ethnic groups will not provide them with their needs. Once that happen they will start to reconsider their goals and their loyalty and the voice of reason, logic will certainly be more heard once the horns of ignorance get silenced or ignored by the majority.

...Pundits and sages were spinning a whole series of mutually exclusive disaster scenarios: Civil war! A nationwide rebellion!...

...We're at a perilous moment in Iraqi history, but the situation is not collapsing. We're in the middle of a battle. It's a battle against people who vehemently oppose a democratic Iraq. The task is to crush those enemies without making life impossible for those who fundamentally want what we want...

...The ruthless and hyperpoliticized Sadr has spent the past year trying to marginalize established religious figures, like Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who come from a more quietist tradition and who believe in the separation of government and clergy. Sadr and his fellow putschists have been spectacularly unsuccessful in winning popular support. The vast majority of Iraqis do not want an Iranian-style dictatorship. Most see Sadr as a young, hotheaded murderer who terrorizes people wherever he goes.

He and his band have taken this opportunity to make a desperate bid for power, before democratic elections reveal the meagerness of their following...

...He is exploiting wounded national pride. He is capitalizing on the Iraqis' frustration with the American occupation (they continually overestimate our competence, then invent conspiracy theories to explain why we haven't transformed Iraq).

Most important, Sadr has the advantages that always accrue to fascist thugs. He is vicious, while his opponents are civilized...

...Sadr's domestic opponents are ill-equipped to deal with him. The police have revealed their weakness. Normal Iraqis are doing what they learned to do under Saddam; they are keeping their heads down. Clerics like Sistani, who operate by consensus, do not want to be seen siding with outsiders against a fellow Muslim...

...Iraqis may be frustrated with the Americans, but they don't want to jump from Baath fascism to theocratic fascism. In a February poll, only 10 percent of Iraqis said it was acceptable to attack Americans. In Kut yesterday, CNN reported, local tribesmen, disgusted by Sadr's violence, rose up against his troops...

...the most influential Shiite groups in Iraq, such as the Dawa and SCIRI parties, are invested in the process of building the new Iraq. Their policies don't jibe with ours, but they have a stake in a democratic future and would love to see Sadr eliminated...

...This week I spoke with leading Democrats and Republicans and found a virtual consensus. We're going to keep the June 30 handover deadline. We're going to raise troop levels if necessary. We're going to wait for the holy period to end and crush Sadr. As Joe Lieberman put it, a military offensive will alienate Iraqis, but "the greater risk is [Sadr] will grow into something malevolent."...

...Over the long run...the task is unavoidable. Sadr is an enemy of civilization. The terrorists are enemies of civilization. They must be defeated.

...Mr. Zapatero should announce that all 1,300 troops pulled out of Iraq will be immediately placed in Afghanistan. A major Spanish deployment there would make a huge difference in stabilizing that country, and it would underscore that Spaniards are willing to shed their blood to fight Islamic militants, so long as there is a U.N. mandate and a clear plan...