One of Ours

...What kills me is the absence of any serious effort by Iraqi parties, organisations, tribal leaders, or clerics to intermediate or try to put an end to the cycle of violence. All we hear is denunciation and fiery speeches as if those were going to achieve anything on the ground...

...Some Iraqis have been circulating another controversial hossa being used by Mahdi "Excuse us Imam Ali, but Muqtada is our weli". This slogan is considered very insulting and offensive to the majority of Shia, since in their doctrine only Imam Ali (Muhammed's cousin and son-in-law) is considered to be their weli or guardian. There has also been talk about Muqtada being referred to as Al-Mahdi (Shi'ite twelfth lost Imam and Messiah), but Shia regard that as an outrageous allegation...

...it is also hard to believe that a young and inexperienced cleric with no real popular support from the Hawza would succeed in recruiting, financing, and training an army of 10,000 Shi'ites, as well as setting up offices, newspapers, and a huge propaganda machine all by himself. All of his aides and supporters are young and impoverished, a large number of them are known to people as criminals, thieves, looters, and unemployed illiterate slum dwellers. They would never show such dedication to their cause unless they were being rewarded...

...It is becoming increasingly evident from all the violence we have witnessed over the last year, that a proxy war is being waged against the US on Iraqi soil by several countries and powers with Iraqis as the fuel and the fire, just like Lebanon was during the late seventies and eighties. The majority of Arab regimes have a huge interest in this situation continuing, not to mention Iran, and Al-Qaeda...If the 'resistance' succeeded and 'liberated' Iraq, the country would immediately be torn into 3, 4, 5 or more parts with each faction, militia, or army struggling to control Baghdad, Kirkuk, Najaf, Karbala, and the oil fields. It will not be a sectarian war as many would imagine, it would be a war between militias...

...It is the most foolish and selfish thing to say "pull the troops out", or "replace them with the UN or NATO". Someone has to see us through this mess to the end. Only a deluded utopian (or an idiot peace activist) would believe that Iraqis would all cosily sit down and settle down their endless disputes without AK-47's, RPG's, or mortars in the event of coalition troops abandoning Iraq. Please please don't get me wrong, I am not in the least saying that I enjoy being occupied by a foreign force, I am not a dreamer who believes that the USA is here for altruistic reasons, I am not saying that I am happy with what my bleeding country is going through, believe me when I say it tears my heart every day to witness all the bloodshed, it pains me immensely to see that we have no leaders whomsoever with the interest and well-being of Iraq as their primary goal, it kills me to see how blind and ignorant we have all become. Iraqis are dying inside every day, and we are committing suicide over and over and over. Some people call me a traitor or a collaborator for all the above and for speaking the truth as opposed to rhetorical, fiery speeches which have been our downfall...

...A neighbour of mine returned from Jamilah (close to Sadr city) this afternoon and he told me that fierce fighting was still going on over there. American soldiers were involved in a campaign of removing monuments and posters of Muqtada Al-Sadr and his late father Mohammed Sadiq Al-Sadr when they came under attack from Mahdi militiamen and their supporters. A taxi driver from Sadr city told him that the Americans and IP have abandoned all six police stations in the district as well as the Municipality building, which were all taken over by Sadr supporters. The taxi driver also said that burnt and abandoned tanks were prized by the slum dwellers because their parts can be sold at high prices at the many junkyards in the district, adding that looters often solve their disputes over the 'booty' by AK-47's. My friend said that the driver was enthusiastically lecturing him about the various mechanical parts (of the tanks or APC's) and their respective prices, describing its engine as being similar to that of a Caprice, and with one specific part being sold as high as $200.

There were many tales about M1A2 tanks having some sort of electromagnetic field (or something to that effect) surrounding it which protects it from RPG attacks. Someone said that the Fedayeen have overcome this problem by smearing the rockets with mud, after previous attempts in the past of wrapping them with cloths or nylon failed.

After two days of calm at my neighbourhood, clashes resumed this morning from around 9 in the morning until 2 or 3 in the afternoon. My brother witnessed masked Fedayeen using RPG's against US troops just two blocks from our house. We panicked when three American tanks and two Humvee's parked in front of our house after that...

...There was a solemn looking fellow in a red unmarked Opel driving back and forth on our street during the battle barking into a mobile phone, frequently pulling by near groups of people and talking to them, someone pointed him out as the local Fedayeen commander and that he was evaluating the situation as well as taking notice of US forces positions. There was another bearded guy on a motorcycle who looked suspicious. Every now and then we would hear a rocking KABOOM followed by loud cheers and frantic shooting. Helicopters were circling the area continously. The neighbourhood is a complete wreck, traffic signs and telephone posts have been run over by tanks, pavements damaged, parked cars flatly crushed by vehicles, and shattered glass from destroyed stores all over the place.

Things are starting to look bleak in the eyes of the world...the result of the Tet Offensive seems similar. I remember that a major offensive was conducted all over Vietnam, and yet we kicked the living hell out of them. However, it gave the world an image that the war has turned against us. I truly believe this is happening now. We can and will crush these militia forces with our military skill and might. However, I don't think we will win the war of opinion. I'm having a hard time talking to my family who are mostly liberals who think we should just leave and nuke the country. They don't see Iraqis as being worth losing one American soldier for...I don't want to see us be humiliated send our military home in disgrace. And the Arabs will claim it as a military victory and that they are stronger than the United States because we ran away...I will surely be ashamed of being American if that happens. I don't want to sound like a war monger, but I just wish I could be in Fallujah helping those Marines kick ass...We are kicking the hell out of the insurgence, and yet it seems like we are losing the war. It is really hard to understand...If we negotiate with them, it only allows them to get more time to re-organize and prepare for more attacks. I don't believe negotiating with them will work, I think we should just go in a crush them. However, we win militarily, but we lose politically no matter what. The only hope that I have right now that the nation I love and care for so much, to not be sent home in disgrace is if Bush stays in office. I think that will be really hard. Anyone who thinks Bush is real popular is delusional. Alot of people are upset with him. I want us to stay there and finish the job, and if we do not have the intestinal fortitude to crush this resistance, then I fear we will have to pull out in disgrace. I don't think Americans are worth losing if you're not willing to go all the way.

...I couldn't get though the dial-up connection and had to go out for an internet cafe, I went to Almansour neighbor, and it was a guest cities, over 90% of the shops are closed, and I went to four intenet cafes that were all closed, but the fifth, fortunately..Was opened.

people came from falluja (today), with a new story: they said "the mojahideen only destroyed the American vehicles and left, then a foreigner photographer came and offered some people who were standing there 200$ to burn the bodies and let him take the pictures..He told them that it will scare the Americans, and that people of falluja will look like heroes"

they seem to be sure! You never know what to believe! Iraq is really the land of rumors.

You know, contrary to the generally prevalent mood, I think that the latest developments are rather encouraging. You may be surprised at this conclusion, but if you look at the situation more analytically you will come up with some unexpected conclusions. I can see a way, a method and a possible strategy to reach some more decisive objectives. The battle lines are better drawn and the adversaries have more or less been brought out in the open and their capabilities and true nature are better exposed...

...this critical phase of this campaign, which for us is a matter of destiny and life and death. I shall try to give my perspective as a middle class Baghdadi and consider how actions and counteractions can interact with our society taking into account the structure, nature and customs of the various classes and groups that make up the Iraqi population of which I am a member, and therefore more intimately acquainted than any external observer...

...we have a perception that the latest events were not some unforeseen chaotic and alarming developments but seem to have some underlying deliberate and premeditated planning and that the initiative did not come from the adversaries but rather from the Coalition...

...It is wise to listen to the advice of those who really wish you success, especially if that success is beneficial, nay crucial to them.

Salaam

Alaa

We are locked in a historic struggle in Iraq. On its outcome hangs more than the fate of the Iraqi people. Were we to fail, which we will not, it is more than 'the power of America' that would be defeated. The hope of freedom and religious tolerance in Iraq would be snuffed out. Dictators would rejoice; fanatics and terrorists would be triumphant. Every nascent strand of moderate Arab opinion, knowing full well that the future should not belong to fundamentalist religion, would be set back in bitter disappointment...

...But our greatest threat, apart from the immediate one of terrorism, is our complacency. When some ascribe, as they do, the upsurge in Islamic extremism to Iraq, do they really forget who killed whom on 11 September 2001? When they call on us to bring the troops home, do they seriously think that this would slake the thirst of these extremists, to say nothing of what it would do to the Iraqis?

Or if we scorned our American allies and told them to go and fight on their own, that somehow we would be spared? If we withdraw from Iraq, they will tell us to withdraw from Afghanistan and, after that, to withdraw from the Middle East completely and, after that, who knows? But one thing is for sure: they have faith in our weakness just as they have faith in their own religious fanaticism. And the weaker we are, the more they will come after us.

It is not easy to persuade people of all this; to say that terrorism and unstable states with WMD are just two sides of the same coin; to tell people what they don't want to hear; that, in a world in which we in the West enjoy all the pleasures, profound and trivial, of modern existence, we are in grave danger.

There is a battle we have to fight, a struggle we have to win and it is happening now in Iraq.

...The coalition’s campaign to recruit so many Iraqi police officers so fast on the heels of the demise of Saddam’s brutal reign has inevitably led to the infiltration of police ranks by thugs and terrorists. That was made abundantly clear in early March, when four Iraqi police officers were Tarrested in connection with the ambush and murder of two U.S. officials and their interpreters. Meanwhile, in the town of Kufa on April 4, much of the U.S.-trained police force reportedly joined the side of Moktada al-Sadr’s militias in a firefight with coalition forces...

...While much of the public ire and media heat has been directed at the Iraqi police, the focus of U.S. military commanders in Iraq remains on the Iraqi Civil Defense Corps. In the words of one senior U.S. commander in Baghdad, “I’m going to keep briefing the importance of the ICDC to our plans because, ultimately, these guys are our ticket out of here.”...

...Shinseki served a four-year term and retired. While he could have been re-appointed to a second four-year term, it’s not unusual to bring in your own team. Shinseki’s stint at Chief was a mixed bag. While I was skeptical of the Stryker, it appears to be doing quite well in limited duty in Iraq; time will tell how it functions in major combat ops. On the other hand, he was very much a slow-go guy on transformation, wanting to hang on to expensive and unnecessary toys like Crusader and was very much the McClellan-type go-slow guy on Afghanistan and Iraq. Shinseki might have been right on the need for more troops for stability ops in Iraq, but he was dead wrong on the size of the force needed to topple Saddam. Plus, his replacement, Pete Schoomaker, is doing an excellent job by all accounts.

Lindsay and O’Neil were sacked because the economy was in the tank and someone had to take the fall to give the illusion of “doing something” until the business cycle did its thing. The economic team seemed like a logical choice for that. And, of course, it’s probably a good idea to get rid of subordinates who try to undermine administration policy.

I suspect Clarke was demoted for being a royal pain in the ass, although that’s just a guess based on what I’ve learned about him over the last few weeks.

...My sense is that we're offering humanitarian aid to the civilians in Fallujah and safe passage for them in exchange for the handoff of the actual people responsible for last week's ambush and mutiliation of the contractors, and we probably also want some agreement to let Iraqi police/military units patrol Fallujah without being attacked. Prediction: the insurgents will tell us to go pound sand. In a week, they have inflicted significant losses on an elite American unit and held their ground, and their situational understanding probably tells them they are winning right now. At most, they will allow humanitarian convoys to enter the city, but they won't let Iraqi civilians leave en masse, because that would deprive them of a significant source of protection against American firepower...

...we must wait until things simmer down until we can restore peace and order in Iraq. Of course, we cannot (and should not) wait passively. American forces ought to hunt down and capture or kill as many insurgents as possible, because these people will come back to fight another day if we don't. But we should recognize the broad nature of this uprising and the extent to which disaffection and dissent permeate Iraqi society. And in the long term, we must figure out a way to allow this kind of dissent ..