All opinions posted. None too pathetic or contrived. Everyone gets their say.

"...even the wicked get worse than they deserve." - Willa Cather, One of Ours

Tuesday, May 18, 2004

Alter on the Bush Administration: "THEY'RE CLOWNS"

Political Animal (Liberal)


Jonathan Alter said in an interview today:

"The level of incompetence is so staggering here, and yet there's this gap between how astonishingly incompetent — and we can go over particulars in the last year if you want to — how astonishingly incompetent they've been and the perception is still of them as solid citizens..."..."The only way you can sort of start to let the public know is to say, no, they don't know what they're doing. They're clowns."..."I was among those people who was deceived. When I was told by administration officials that [Iraq was] working on a nuclear weapons program — Paul Wolfowitz told that to me directly. It did cause me some alarm and cause me some sense that it was not worth the risk to not take Saddam out."
Kevin Drum over at the Washington Monthly says "Now you tell us!":
...take a look at Alter's latest Newsweek column. Go ahead and read it. I'll wait.

My problem is that Alter presumably sees the Bush administration up close on a daily basis and is paid to express his opinion about them, but he's not really doing it. His column is typical column stuff: thoughtful, nuanced, critical of the administration but still optimistic that Iraq will be peaceful someday, and with a conclusion that has just the barest hint of partisan preference ("...restoring America's prestige is a means to an end, and the presidential election, a referendum on which man can best change the picture that the whole world sees").

But guess what? It turns out that's not what he really thinks. What he really thinks is that the Bushies are "astonishingly incompetent," they are "clowns," and they are accomplished liars. He is gobsmacked that in so many parts of America "the perception is still of them as solid citizens."

Why should he be so surprised? His advice on the radio was that "The only way you can sort of start to let the public know is to say, no, they don't know what they're doing. They're clowns." But if that's the case, why doesn't he write that in Newsweek? After all, he's the guy with both inside access and a big megaphone, and if he doesn't say it, who will?
Alter can't do that, he might upset his friends inside the Beltway and he might lose his soft gig at Newsweek.

He tells his freinds the facts about the Bush administration so that they know that he doesn't really believe the pablum he writes in his magazine.

Sanctimonious and content: the perfect establishment liberal.

Sistani Calls for Iraq-Wide Protests

New York Times
Iraq's most senior Shia cleric says all armed forces must be withdrawn from the holy cities of Najaf and Karbala.
In an attempt to end the bloodiest fighting in Iraq and preserve the sanctity of Shiite shrines, the country's most influential cleric called today for the withdrawal of armies from the southern holy cities of Karbala and Najaf.

The Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, demanded in a statement that "armed forces" must "leave the holy cities and open the way for the police and tribal forces." He also asked for people to stage peaceful protests in city centers calling for the withdrawals...

[...]

Senior clerics have called on Mr. Sadr to withdraw from the holy cities, but he has declined to do so. It is unlikely that he will heed Ayatollah Sistani's demands, though he has said he will disarm his militia if the grand ayatollahs ask for that...

[...]

American officers here say the biggest indication that outside fighters are working with the Mahdi Army is the obvious skill of some of the insurgents. One particularly good sniper is believed to be a former member of the Special Republican Guard. Teams of insurgents firing mortars have also been very precise with their attacks, able to lob rounds right into the Mukhaiyam Mosque.

[...]

"Right now, we just need to be able to go into the city," said Lt. Col. Garry R. Bishop, referring to the central shrine area. "They're using it as a sanctuary."

He said the Badr Organization, the armed wing of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, an influential Shiite party, had promised it would keep the Mahdi Army from entering the shrines. For whatever reason, it had failed to do so. American officials have been leaning on that party and on other Shiite political and religious leaders to persuade Mr. Sadr to surrender, but such efforts have been unsuccessful...
Sistani wants the Al-Mahdi militia to leave Najaf, Kufa and Karbala. Muqtada has apparently called for Shiites to come to Najaf from all over Iraq to make a stand against the Americans, and Sistani is trying to countermand him. Instead, Sistani is calling for the Shiites to gather at mosques in their own provinces to protest the fighting.

We should immediately agree to Sistani's proclamation. When the Al-Mahdi leave, we should also leave. Besides, fighting outside the cities will reduce the chance that innocent civilians or their property will be hurt. This would be to our significant military advantage.

Sarin shell found in Iraq

Tim Blair (Aussie blogger)
IXLNXS writes:

Invading Iraq for one shell of outdated sarin gas equates to the local police kicking in your door and shooting your family because [you] supposedly have a huge weapons cache, and they end up finding a pistol.

Lets wait and see what else develops of this before the "Mission Accomplished" banner unveils shall we.
And reader CurrencyLad responds:

Your analogy should run like this:

Three of that family's neighbours had been shot at by the householder concerned. [Some of the ethnic minority] neighbours down the street had been poisoned to death. The police issued operational commands for [a warrent to be served and] the household to be lawfully raded by SWAT unless the madman came out peacefully. Affadavits had been signed by most of the local citizens attesting to the relevant crimes.

The miscreant householder didn't come out with his hands up. A few of the neighbours were being bribed to look the other way, as were [several] police officers [and city officials]. [A siege begins which results in the starvation of some of the children in the madman's house. After waiting for several months, f]earful for their well being, some of the neighbours facilitated the rading of the house by a coalition of security firms. The madman was removed.

Doesn't even really matter whether or not they found weapons in the manhole or the basement. As it happens, they found a few. Kurdish neighbours will not be slaughtered again, others will not be burgled again. Madman's children will not be [starved, murdered and] abused again.


Mission goddam accomplished.
I modified CurrencyLad's ananlogy to improve its clarity.

Note: None of the arguments for taking out the madman have to do with the madman supporting terrorism against people from the next town, or the madman supposedly having a huge stash of illegal weapons.

Media off the mark with Rumsfeld potshots

Chicago Sun-Times
In World War II a passerby, lost in London's Whitehall, stopped a US military officer and asked him which side the Defense Department was on. The officer thought for a moment and then said:

''Well, it's hard to be sure, but our side, I hope.''...

In the last week the coverage of Iraq by the U.S. media has exhibited at least four separate failings:

1. Inferentialism. Several media reports of the Abu Ghraib scandal have been, in effect, prosecuting briefs for the theory that Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld either knew about or authorized the abuse of Iraqi prisoners. Since the evidence for this is scanty, reporters build inference upon speculation to make the case...


...suggests a wider circle of involvement in aggressive and potentially abusive" techniques...could have been an outgrowth...although no direct links have been found...The coincidence in timing..."

[...]

In opposition to this towering inferno of inferences, there is an actual fact: The statement of one of the abuser guards that the higher-ups would have stopped the abuses if they had known of them.

2. Selective agonizing. Ever since the Abu Ghraib photos emerged, the media have shown them on every possible occasion, along with reports and editorials on America's shame and the world's revulsion.

The photographs are shocking evidence of shocking behavior and we should be ashamed they occurred under American auspices. But they are not the only story in the world. Objectively considered, the UN's "Oil for Food" scandal is a far bigger story, involving the starvation of children. Interestingly, the media have been happy to forget it entirely in all their excitement over Abu Ghraib.

Then again, worse rape and brutality than that displayed in Abu Ghraib are known to occur daily in America's prisons without arousing any media interest at all.

And the photographs of prisoner abuse are not remotely as shocking as the pictures of Nicholas Berg being beheaded by Islamist terrorists. You might imagine that the beheading of an innocent American would be replayed endlessly.

3. Taking dictation from terror. Before we leave Berg, we should note that a vast number of news outlets reported that he was murdered "in retaliation for" the Abu Ghraib abuses. That was the terrorists' own justification...The "retaliation" explanation transferred the blame for Berg's death from the actual murderers onto George W. Bush and the United States....the terrorists abducted Berg about two weeks before the Abu Ghraib scandal surfaced. Was that abduction in retaliation for something else?

4. Willing gullibility. Two newspapers -- the Daily Mirror in Britain and the Boston Globe -- have published fake photographs of British and American soldiers abusing prisoners. In the British case the fakes were quickly detected once they had been published, and in the U.S. case, they had been detected before the Globe published them.

Neither the media's vaunted "skepticism" nor simple fact-checking on the Internet were employed by the papers. The fakes were, in the old Fleet Street joke, "too good to check." ...the journalists wanted to believe they were real. Indeed, it is worse than that -- since the fraud was discovered and the Mirror editor fired, he has become a heroic figure in British circles hostile to Blair and the war.

Admittedly, reporters and editors make mistakes. But when all the mistakes are on the side of opposing the liberation of Iraq, and none of the mistakes favor the United States or Britain or Bush or Blair, it tells you something.

Namely, which side they're on.
This reminds me of when the grocery store misprices an item on the shelf. It always seems that the problem works to the store's advantage. That makes it hard to believe that the error is a natural random error. It seems far more likely that they are inclined to cheat you.

When the media make reporting mistakes; is it just the kind of random error that occurs from time-to-time? Or is it because their news coverage is tainted by their policy biases against the war?

Which explanation seems more credible to you?

Pentagon sets up tribunals to review Gitmo detentions

Intel Dump
The Defense Department announced the creation of a new administrative system today which will periodically review the status of detainees being held at Guantanamo bay to see if they merit further detention in America's war on terrorism. The U.S. has come under fire from international law critics for some time, because it has no 'competent tribunal' established in accordance with Art. V of the 3rd Geneva Convention for the review of prisoner status at this facility. The DoD release doesn't explicitly say this process will fit that bill, but it seems obvious to me that it is intended to do so.
This is fine. But if no additional prisoners are actually released under this new process, then it will not be credible.

The flaw in Seymour Hersh's theory.

Slate (Liberal)
What Went Wrong By Christopher Hitchens
...the work of the sniggering video-morons is black and white: one of the very few moral absolutes of which we have a firm and decided grasp.

...in order to argue this top-down process, [Hersh] decides to propose that it began with Sept. 11...

...the Washington Post "reported that, as many as ten times since early October [2001], Air Force pilots believed they'd had senior Al Qaida and Taliban members in their sights but had been unable to act in time because of legalistic hurdles."

These, and many other bureaucratic and butt-covering obstacles, according to Hersh and others, engendered such frustration at the top of the Pentagon that ruthless methods were discreetly ordered and discreetly applied. Thus, from the abysmal failure to erase Mullah Omar comes the howling success in trailer-porn tactics at Abu Ghraib.

...(There would have been sadistic dolts in the American occupation forces in Iraq, even if there had not been wavering lawyerly fools in the Tampa center that was monitoring Afghanistan.) One needs to stipulate, once again, that the filthy images from Abu Ghraib are not bad because they look bad, but bad because they are bad...

...in the news cycle that preceded the Iraq atrocities, the administration was being arraigned from dawn until dusk for the offense of failing to take timely measures against the Taliban and al-Qaida. I hardly need to recapitulate the indictment here. We had our chance to see it coming, and to see where it was coming from, and the administration comprehensively blew all these chances, from the first warnings of suicide-hijacking to the cosseting of Saudi visa applicants...

But there is no serious way of having this cake and scarfing it...Would the antiwar camp have approved the [questionable] measures necessary to ensure those [beating Al-Qaida]? If they will the end, will they will the means? Would they taunt that lawyer in Tampa, as they taunt the supporters of regime change, with living a quiet life at home while others die in the field? Isn't the refusal to take out the leaders of al-Qaida a bit of a distraction from the struggle against al-Qaida?

...I know the answers to those questions as well as you do...the battle against Islamic jihad will be going on for a very long time, against a foe that is both ruthless and irrational. This means that infinite patience and scruple and intelligence are required, as well as decisiveness and bravery. Given this necessary assumption, all short-cut artists, let alone rec-room sadists, are to be treated, not as bad apples alone, but as traitors and enemies. If Rumsfeld could bring himself to say that, he could perhaps undo some of the shame, and some of the harm as well.
When anti-war people make these arguments that are critical of Rumsfeld's policy choices they don't really have any credibility. This is because everyone understands that they would oppose the war regardless of the specific policy choices made by Rumsfeld.

These arguments will only have validity when those of us who have been for the war on terror are willing to criticize Rumsfeld for being too tough on the enemy.

My criticism of Abu Ghraib is based on the premise that the prisoners in the pictures are suspected of being members of the Iraqi resistance. These are guerilla insurgents and must be treated as POWs.

On the other hand, when we are talking about Islamo-fascist terrorists, I support being as tough as possible. Tougher even. I believe that if a US agent believes that killing an Al-Qaida terrorist will save lives, they should do so with all due dispatch.

If you have already made the moral decision that we are at war with these Islamo-fascists, then it is our duty to kill them whenever an opportunity arises. Therfore, if I condone what amounts to the summary killing of suspected terrorists, how can I not support the use of lesser measures to extract possibly vital information? Whether an Al-Qaida agent is killed before, during or after interrogation makes no moral difference. He has died under the authority of the people of the United States.

This war is not a war of law enforcement, nor will it be won using military means. This is basically an intelligence war between the CIA and Al-Qaida. Almost everything else is a side issue. Even bringing democracy to Iraq.

In essence, those who criticize the war in Iraq are correct -- the invasion of Iraq has little direct effect on the overall war on Islamic fascism. They are two separate issues.

Hersh compares the treatment of Iraqi resistance prisoners with Al-Qaida prisoners. Hersh is mistaken in this premise because he is comparing apples and oranges, saying 'we treat apples this way and this "created a climate" that caused us to treat oranges that way'.

This fundamental error is due to the fact that he opposes this war, regardless of the specific policy choices on the treatment of prisoners. Someone who supports the war would not make this error in discernment.

It's easy to get a travel document..!

Iraq at a glance (Iraqi Sunni Dentist fm Baghdad)
Today, my brother in law and I went to the passports office to get an interim travel document, cause he wants to travel to Syria for some work, so I decided to get a document for me , who knows, probably I might travel oneday.

I was shocked by the new behavior of the officials and the new procedures there, I thought that I were in another country!

There was an organized queues...the boss got out of the building and took the application forms from the elderly people...he said: ‘ anyone has a problem in getting the document or any obstacle just tell me’ !!

[...]

Nearly more than 200 application form were applied in 20 minutes only, which is something impossible in Iraq ! Or was impossible...You might see this as something absurd ‘ getting a passport’ but it was something hard.. Very hard to get..

There is one problem here, which is: this document is ‘interim’ and a ‘document’, so most of the countries don’t accept it, we can travel I think to Syria, Jordan, Yemen and Iran only...
Just imaging traveling to London on vacation.

Unfortunately the new passports probably won't be issued until next spring (i.e. after the elections). Even then, some countries won't recognize them for political reasons; particularly if the US military still has bases in Iraq.

U.S. Forces, Under Attack, Strike Rebel Cleric's Fighters Near Shrine

New York Times
...After hours of debate on Sunday, commanders called in an AC-130 gunship, which began pounding at insurgent positions with 40-millimeter cannon fire around 12:30 a.m. Monday. An American officer at the scene said the insurgents had clustered on a street corner about 160 feet from the golden-domed Shrine of Hussein, dedicated to the martyred grandson of the Prophet Muhammad.

As many as 16 insurgents were killed in the airstrike and at least five were wounded, said Maj. Mark Grabski, executive officer of the First Battalion, 37th Armor Regiment of the First Armored Division. Thirteen other insurgents were killed in battles in the area...

[...]

...there have been signs that top Shiites have grown weary of Mr. Sadr. There has been little outrage from residents, even after American troops began using the mosque here as a base.

Mr. Sadr and his armed supporters have used holy sites as shields during a six-week uprising against the occupation forces. Shortly after he ignited the revolt, Mr. Sadr barricaded himself in the nearby city of Najaf and posted members of his militia, the Mahdi Army, around the Shrine of Ali...

[...]

On Sunday afternoon, insurgents with checkered scarves covering their faces and carrying AK-47 assault rifles, sniper rifles and rocket-propelled grenade launchers wandered around the shrine area. A freelance photographer for The New York Times reported seeing many armed men along a road surrounding the Shrine of Hussein. The men had at least a dozen rocket-propelled grenades, and some wore bulletproof vests.

Near one corner, fighters sat in a circle around a small fire brewing tea. Gunfire could be heard nearby. Several men leaned their AK-47's against a wall and prayed, kneeling.

At one point, a group of about 10 men reloaded their weapons and peered around the corner to where they had set up a heavy machine gun 50 yards away on a median in the road. Insurgents fired the gun every minute or so in long bursts.

There were about 70 fighters on that corner of the shrine. They looked relaxed, joking and laughing. They seemed confident that the Americans would not attack them if they stayed in the shrine area...
The end of the Al-Mahdi militia is inevitable. Eventually they will be reduced to making guerilla attacks like the Baathists. That would make it a police problem that can dealt with. Militarily they have no hope.

The only battle they can hope to win is the political battle -- and Sistani will never allow Muqtada to win the political battle. Without the political support of the Shia leadership, Muqtada is doomed.

I will not cut and run, says angry Blair

Guardian
A defiant Tony Blair faced down his critics last night and delivered an unequivocal message that he has no intention of standing down or "cutting and running in Iraq".

A clearly furious prime minister insisted that yesterday's assassination of Abdul Zahra Othman, the chairman of the Iraqi governing council, only cemented his determination to remain in Iraq to "get the job done".

...the prime minister told a press conference in the Turkish capital: "Of course it's difficult at the moment but the task of leadership is precisely not cut and run but to face difficulties and overcome them."

[...]

Buoyed by the support of ministers from across the party, Mr Blair used his press conference in Ankara to underline his determination to create a democratic Iraq. In remarks, which clearly referred to his own position, he said: "Have we got the will to see it through to a country that is stable and democratic and operates in the best interests of the majority of the Iraqi people? My answer to that is: we have the will. We have the leadership to do it. We will get the job done and we will continue until the job is done. There will be no cutting and running, we will continue until the job is done."

[...]

But British officials made clear that Mr Blair is determined to press on in Iraq by announcing within the next two months further troop deployments to Iraq. These are expected to number 4,000.

...they want to show that Britain and the US are working towards leaving Iraq but this can only be achieved once Iraq is stable - and that needs troops...
The 4,000 new British troops will be used to replace the 1,200 Spanish troops that have left Najaf.

As Violence Deepens, So Does Pessimism

Washington Post
...U.N. envoy Lakhdar Brahimi is trying to create the caretaker government that will assume authority, but on Monday debate over the details of his plan took a back seat to a more basic question: If Iraq's titular president, Izzedin Salim, can be blown up at the gates of occupation headquarters, what kind of country is being handed over to Iraqis?

"We could not imagine the deterioration leading to such a point. It's getting worse day after day, and no one has been able to put an end to it. Who is going to protect the next government, no matter what kind it is?" said Abdul Jalil Mohsen, a former Iraqi general and member of the Iraqi National Accord, a prominent party represented on the U.S.-appointed Governing Council...

"There's no question: A small band of people can paralyze the country," said Mahmoud Othman, an independent Kurdish member of the council. "They are armed and organized and this is the difficulty. The people who did this have no respect for anything of value. It's a real danger to Iraq, the Iraqis and to an agenda to achieve any kind of democracy."

[...]

Central Iraq, home to a long-running revolt by Sunni Muslims, is plagued by daily roadside bombings, occasional car bombings and frequent assassinations of Iraqis working with the U.S.-led administration. To the south, frequent clashes over the past six weeks have pitted U.S. and allied forces against a persistent insurgency led by Shiite Muslim cleric Moqtada Sadr. Fighting has all but paralyzed several southern cities.

Hostile bands operate freely in cities that straddle the main routes in and out of Baghdad. Foreigners who travel Iraqi roads run the risk of being kidnapped, and reconstruction projects in many parts of the country have come to a standstill.

[...]

... the area around Fallujah is heavy with roadside bombs and ambushes. Over the weekend, U.S. Marines reported on a goodwill visit to the town of Kharma, on the road from Baghdad to Fallujah. As soon as they left, insurgents peppered the town with rockets...

The roads south from Baghdad have become alleys for ambushes and kidnapping, area residents say. Two Russian electrical workers, nabbed near Latifiyah, were released Monday after two weeks in captivity; one of their comrades was killed during the kidnapping.

Even residents of Latifiyah said they had been terrorized by gangs of insurgents. They insist the attackers are not local people, but fundamentalist Wahhabi Muslims hiding among the date groves. "We don't use the main road to Latifiyah," said Ali Hamza Khazraji, a tribal leader...
In a perverse way, these fears of insecurity by Iraqi leaders works to our advantage. After the turn-over of power they will be unable to demand the removal of Coalition forces due to fears of the inevitable chaos that would follow. For the sake of their own personal survival, the Coalition forces will have to stay until security is restored.

Now stop it! No conspiracy theories! I said stop thinking that!

In any case, pessimism is irrelevant. Optimism is irrelevant. Creating a democratic, peaceful, free and independent Iraq is all that matters. How people feel about it makes no difference. In situations of successful political compromise, everyone should be left pessimistic and unhappy. That is a good sign.

Why do they hate Blair so much?

Guardian
...At the moment the Labour party is between three and four points behind the opposition in the polls, and the trumpeted fact that 46% want Blair to stand down before the next election has obscured the more awkward fact that 54%, apparently, don't want him to...

[...]

...today the talk is of forcing out a leader who has presided over (take a deep breath, a list is coming) two landslide victories, record low unemployment, record investment in public spending and all the other stuff that, I seem to remember, used to be regarded as being important by Labour-minded folk...

[...]

...the excessive dislike of Blair among certain small sections of British society long predates Iraq. A friend of mine recalled for me his attendance at a dinner party in late 1997 when he was taken aback by the venomous contempt for Blair displayed by a gathering of journalists, publishers and academics. And I often noticed the same phenomenon...

...The accomplishments of the government cannot be attributed to him, while its failures can. It's a sort of reverse hero-worship...

It isn't really about ideology. Most of the pathological Blair-bashers I have met are not what is meant by "traditional Labour supporters", in the sense that they are invariably members of the professional middle classes. And almost every dread reform that Blair has enacted has been tried somewhere else in social democratic Europe, no matter how much the previous British form has been fetishised by conservative Labourites.

...Blair will want to bugger off a year or so after (he hopes) winning the election of 2005. This allows a successor to be chosen and to have been PM for at least two or three years before standing [for a general election] again...
The political fantasies that some people entertain are unfathomable. Blair has been the best leader of government of any country in the world for the last six years. The idea that Blair is weak and therefore will just knuckle under to his opponents is absurd.

Blair will leave at a time of his own choosing or when he is defeated at the polls, and not until then. I expect that Blair will retire in the summer of 2006.

The Masks We Wear


"We are the sum of the things we pretend to be, so we must be careful what we pretend to be."

Kurt Vonnegut