All opinions posted. None too pathetic or contrived. Everyone gets their say.

"...even the wicked get worse than they deserve." - Willa Cather, One of Ours

Thursday, May 20, 2004

Sky-high gas prices? Not really

Boston Globe
gasoline prices aren’t high by historic standards

...Gasoline today is no more expensive today than it has been for most of the postwar period, and it is considerably cheaper than it was in the late 1970s and early 1980s...

[...]

...Comparing today’s prices with those of yesteryear is a meaningless exercise unless the prices are given in constant, or “real,” dollars. And in real dollars, gas prices today are — well, normal.

Sure, the $2.03 being charged at the pump today seems high. But in actual financial terms, it’s a lot less onerous than the $1.25 a gallon motorists were paying in 1980 — a whopping $2.80 when translated into 2004 dollars. (Adjusted the other way, today’s $2.03 pump price is equal to 89 cents in 1980 dollars.) When it comes to historical price comparisons, nominal dollar amounts signify little. It is the inflation-adjusted price that tells you whether the true cost of a product has increased, decreased, or stayed the same...
I suppose this is correct. But it certainly 'feels' like the price of gas is high. I suppose it is the psycological impact of being over $2.00.

via OTB

Kerry=Nixon?

MSNBC
...Kerry said Bush has damaged relations with allies to the point that only a new president can repair them. The problem is evident in Iraq, said the decorated Vietnam War veteran who promised to avert a quagmire.

"It will not be like Vietnam," Kerry said. "I will get our troops home from Iraq with honor and with the interests of our country properly protected."

How soon? "It will not take long to do what is necessary. I'm not going to give you a specific date, but I'll tell you that I have a plan and I will put that plan in place." Republican Richard M. Nixon used similar language during the 1968 presidential race, but the war dragged on for years after his election.

Saying his goal would be achieved in his first term, Kerry explained, “Look, you may have some deployments of people for a long period of time in the Middle East depending on what the overall approach to the Middle East is. I’m not going to tell you we won’t shift deployments from one place to another, but we’re not going to be engaged in an active kind of death zone the way we are today.”...
Um...let me get this straight...Kerry has a 'secret plan to end the war'?

One that will resovle the war sometime between 2005-2008? So is he saying that, if he is elected, the current situation might go on for up to another four years?

I don't think this is the kind of image that Kerry wants to project.

Schröder Mentions The War (Again)

EURSOC (European media critic)
...Back in 2002, most pundits expected Schröder to be trounced in Germany's elections. However, the wily chancellor capitalised on German anti-war feeling and beat the opposition Conservative party - which supported the US action - by a narrow margin. Since then, economic stagnation and a series of unpopular reforms have seen Schröder's ratings slip to record lows.

The chancellor's party expects another pasting in June's election - but he hopes to save his skin by dusting off his "war record."

...the chancellor has spent the past two yeargrovelingng to Washington in order to patch up the relationship he wrecked.

...Schröder has made much of his close relationship with France's President Chirac...in the forthcoming French elections...Chirac's government is expected to be dealt a death blow...
Despite their anti-war stances, both Schröder and Chirac are expected to lose decisively in the next election.

Iraq Police Raid Home of Former Ally Chalabi

CSMonitor
Ahmed Chalabi's failed coup: The U.S. raids his home and headquarters in Iraq to foil his plot.
...Thursday, US troops raided his house and the offices of his Iraqi National Congress political party. Earlier this week, his party's monthly US stipend of $340,000 was abruptly cut off.
[...]
They overturned desks, seized computers and documents, and loaded boxes into waiting cars. Coalition officials told Associated Press that warrants had been issued for "up to 15 people" on allegations of "fraud, kidnapping, and associated matters."...neighbors said some members of Chalabi's entourage were taken away...A portrait of Chalabi hanging on the wall had a bullet hole in the forehead. Chalabi said police burst into his bedroom carrying pistols.

"I am America's best friend in Iraq," Chalabi told a news conference. "If the (coalition) finds it necessary to direct an armed attack against my home, you can see the state of relations between the (coalition) and the Iraqi people."

Chalabi repudiated the American occupation authority and declared himself a leader of the new Iraq. "My relationship with the Coalition Provisional Authority doesn't exist,"...
[...]
In recent days, American officials have hinted that Chalabi was impeding US investigations into funds allegedly skimmed from the United Nations oil-for-food program during the time of Saddam Hussein. In a strange twist, Chalabi claimed Thursday that one of the reasons for this raid was his leading role in opening the investigation.
[...]
In Iraq, Chalabi is so widely despised that people blame him for everything from kidnapping and assassinations to electrical outages...
[...]
As plans for the transitional government progressed, Chalabi grew increasingly critical of US and UN authorities. In recent weeks, he began to press for an increased role for the political parties represented on the governing council, and began launching bitter attacks at UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi.
[...]
Chalabi's objections were no surprise. As a political appointee viewed as illegitimate by most Iraqis, he stood to lose his influence once Brahimi's plan came into being.

Desperate to keep its place the US appointed government, Chalabi's party has accused the UN special envoy of everything from "impudence" to leading a "white coup" in conspiracy with the Jordanian government.
[...]
In fact, Chalabi is so distrusted that immediately after the raid, a rumor circulated in Baghdad: The American authorities in a last ditch attempt to salvage their man's reputation had staged the raid to increase his stature among the people as an anti-American figure.

"I think that he will try to improve his popularity and tell the Iraqis 'Look, you have a nationalist leader now, and he's against the Americans. I don't think people are so naive as to accept it,"...
It only took the Pentagon four years to discover that Chalabi and his fellow crooks at the INC were complete frauds. Better late than never.

UPDATE: from Alexander Cockburn at Salon -

"This all started since [U.N. envoy Lakhdar] Brahimi announced that Chalabi would be kept out of the new arrangement," says an Iraqi political observer who is not only long familiar with Chalabi himself but also in close touch with key actors, including U.S. officials at the CPA and Iraqi politicians.

"Ahmed is gathering groups to bring this new government down even before July 1. He is in a very destructive phase, mobilizing forces to make sure the U.N. initiative -- due to be announced in 10 days -- fails." Chalabi has reportedly been inflaming his recruits with reports that veteran Algerian diplomat Brahimi is part of a Sunni conspiracy bent on undermining the rights of Iraqi Shiites to hold power in Iraq.
[...]
...Two other members of the Governing Council are also considered close adherents of Chalabi, who recently inaugurated the Supreme Shia Council, modeled on a similar entity that flourished in Lebanon during that country's bloody civil war. Among other entities included in the council are Iraqi members of Hezbollah.

..."He knows that, sooner or later, Muqtada al-Sadr is going to be killed, [and] that will leave tens, hundreds, of thousands of his followers adrift, looking for a new leader. If Ahmed plays the role of victim after [today's raid], he can take on that role."
[...]
..."I think the U.S. moved against him because they realized he is a gambler, ready to bring it all down."
Good ridance to bad rubbish, I say.

Sadr Officials Denounce Muqtada's Policies

az-Zaman (Iraqi daily)
...the elders of the Sadrist movement begun by Muqtada's father, Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr, oppose Muqtada's policies and his resort to armed violence. They are remaining silent, however, for fear of being killed by his partisans. The newspaper also received a communique signed by major clerics of Najaf condemning the gathering of extremists in the city and accusing Muqtada of having ordered that Sistani's house be sprayed by machine gun fire...<
Things aren't looking so good for the little Muqty.

via Juan Cole

What the polls in Iraq actually say

ABC & USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup
In every measurable respect (e.g., family income, electricity, clean water, medical care, religious freedom, security, school quality, optimism about the future, etc.), Iraqis are much better off now than they were before the war.


These following results are from an ABC News poll conducted among a random, representative sample of 2,737 Iraqis in face-to-face interviews across the country from Feb. 9-28.
US Occupation vs Baathist Regime:

Local crime: 50.5 percent say there is less crime now; 38.6 percent, more crime.

Random violence: 53.6 percent say things are better now; 26.4 percent, worse.

Employment: 38.9 percent, jobs are more available; 25.3 percent, jobs are less available.

Electricity: 43.4 percent, better; 23.0 percent worse.

Availability of clean water: 41.3 percent, better; 16.4 percent, worse.

Availability of medical care: 44.3 percent better; 15.6 percent, worse.

Quality of local schools: 46.9 percent better; 9.4 percent, worse.

Confidence in local government: 44.4 percent better, 16.4 percent worse.

Availability of basic goods: 44.2 percent better, 16.9 percent worse.
Just to show this isn't a fluke, here are the results of the recent USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup poll of 3,444 Iraqis. This was the largest and most comprehensive poll in Iraqi history. It was conducted by the Pan Arab Research Center of Dubai between March 22 - April 2.
Keeping in mind the hardships you have suffered since the US/British invasion:

Was ousting Saddam Hussein worth it or not? Worth it: 61%, Not worth it: 38%

Are you and your family better off or worse off than before the US invasion? Better off: 51%, Worse off: 25%

Has your family income increased or decreased? Increase: 41%, Decrease: 16%

Have you ever been afraid to worship? Now: 5%, Before the war: 54%

Would Iraqis have been able to remove Saddam Hussein without a US/British invasion? Yes: 4%, No: 89%
On the other hand, it is also true that any poll question that asks how the Iraqis feel about the occupation reveals quite a bit of negativity (i.e., they don't like it very much).

But it seems that many media commentators don't seem to believe these poll numbers. They keep insisting that Iraq is the disaster it is portrayed as on the nightly news (or worse). The media gives the appearance of disliking any facts that indicates that things are better than they are reporting.

Instead of constantly focusing on sensational and negative incidents, it would seem reasonable for the media to consider focusing on what life is like now for ordinary Iraqis. But generally this is not done for the simple reason that it is very difficult under the current conditions. Western reporters typically don't speak Arabic and are afraid (for good reason) to travel outside of Baghdad.

This reminds me of a well discussed incident that occurred a few years ago, when a rather mild hurricane struck New Orleans. All the news channels showed a tree that had fallen across a major intersection. It was the same tree on every channel, and post-storm reports noted that it was pretty much the only tree that fell in the entire city. But the news stories made it an representation of the entire storm. They wanted to show imagery that would captivate their audience, even if it gave a false impression. This happened primarily because, for various reasons, it was the only video of the hurricane that was available. So the media played up the information they had. The downed tree wasn't the real story. The real story was that the hurricane hadn't been as bad as expected.

Because the western reporters in Iraq are either unwilling or unable to gain access to real news, they wind up showing stories of the proverbial "residential fire/car crash/bank robbery".

What is happening in New York City is not the sum of all the fires, robberies and traffic accidents that occur on a given day. Neither is Iraq.


I am bound to be true


“I am not bound to win, but I am bound to be true. I am not bound to succeed, but I am bound to live by the light that I have. I must stand with anybody that stands right, stand with him while he is right, and part with him when he goes wrong.”

Abraham Lincoln