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"...even the wicked get worse than they deserve." - Willa Cather, One of Ours

Thursday, May 20, 2004

What the polls in Iraq actually say

ABC & USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup
In every measurable respect (e.g., family income, electricity, clean water, medical care, religious freedom, security, school quality, optimism about the future, etc.), Iraqis are much better off now than they were before the war.

These following results are from an ABC News poll conducted among a random, representative sample of 2,737 Iraqis in face-to-face interviews across the country from Feb. 9-28.
US Occupation vs Baathist Regime:

Local crime: 50.5 percent say there is less crime now; 38.6 percent, more crime.

Random violence: 53.6 percent say things are better now; 26.4 percent, worse.

Employment: 38.9 percent, jobs are more available; 25.3 percent, jobs are less available.

Electricity: 43.4 percent, better; 23.0 percent worse.

Availability of clean water: 41.3 percent, better; 16.4 percent, worse.

Availability of medical care: 44.3 percent better; 15.6 percent, worse.

Quality of local schools: 46.9 percent better; 9.4 percent, worse.

Confidence in local government: 44.4 percent better, 16.4 percent worse.

Availability of basic goods: 44.2 percent better, 16.9 percent worse.
Just to show this isn't a fluke, here are the results of the recent USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup poll of 3,444 Iraqis. This was the largest and most comprehensive poll in Iraqi history. It was conducted by the Pan Arab Research Center of Dubai between March 22 - April 2.
Keeping in mind the hardships you have suffered since the US/British invasion:

Was ousting Saddam Hussein worth it or not? Worth it: 61%, Not worth it: 38%

Are you and your family better off or worse off than before the US invasion? Better off: 51%, Worse off: 25%

Has your family income increased or decreased? Increase: 41%, Decrease: 16%

Have you ever been afraid to worship? Now: 5%, Before the war: 54%

Would Iraqis have been able to remove Saddam Hussein without a US/British invasion? Yes: 4%, No: 89%
On the other hand, it is also true that any poll question that asks how the Iraqis feel about the occupation reveals quite a bit of negativity (i.e., they don't like it very much).

But it seems that many media commentators don't seem to believe these poll numbers. They keep insisting that Iraq is the disaster it is portrayed as on the nightly news (or worse). The media gives the appearance of disliking any facts that indicates that things are better than they are reporting.

Instead of constantly focusing on sensational and negative incidents, it would seem reasonable for the media to consider focusing on what life is like now for ordinary Iraqis. But generally this is not done for the simple reason that it is very difficult under the current conditions. Western reporters typically don't speak Arabic and are afraid (for good reason) to travel outside of Baghdad.

This reminds me of a well discussed incident that occurred a few years ago, when a rather mild hurricane struck New Orleans. All the news channels showed a tree that had fallen across a major intersection. It was the same tree on every channel, and post-storm reports noted that it was pretty much the only tree that fell in the entire city. But the news stories made it an representation of the entire storm. They wanted to show imagery that would captivate their audience, even if it gave a false impression. This happened primarily because, for various reasons, it was the only video of the hurricane that was available. So the media played up the information they had. The downed tree wasn't the real story. The real story was that the hurricane hadn't been as bad as expected.

Because the western reporters in Iraq are either unwilling or unable to gain access to real news, they wind up showing stories of the proverbial "residential fire/car crash/bank robbery".

What is happening in New York City is not the sum of all the fires, robberies and traffic accidents that occur on a given day. Neither is Iraq.

Posted by: Zayphar / 5/20/2004 01:47:00 AM
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