One of Ours

At least five of the fifty or so foreigners who have been kidnapped, have been killed, most of the others have been released. None of the kidnappers have been given their demands (usually that this country or that pull their troops out of Iraq.) One effect the kidnapping spree has had is to slow the economic reconstruction. The Iraqi economy had been experiencing double digit growth so far this year, but with so many of the foreign workers and technical experts afraid to travel, a lot of projects are stalled, or slowed down. The increase of attacks on truck traffic has slowed down delivery of building materials and equipment, which has disrupted construction schedules. This has been noticed by the population, and whatever enthusiasm there was for the "brave Iraqi resistance fighting the evil foreign occupation" is fading...

...The groups that are criminal gangs are inclined to get out of the revolution business if they take a beating. The political gangs (pro-Saddam, pro-Sadr, pro-al Qaeda) are less likely to give up the fight, but it is possible and that's why there has been a truce in Fallujah. The pro-Sadr Shia gangs are full of unemployed young guys who have been exposed to a lot of "blame the infidel" rhetoric by opportunistic Shia clerics. Other Shia clerics are trying to preach a different message ("let's rebuild Iraq and get you a job") that is making some headway.

The al Qaeda type gangs, and the foreign Arab nationalists, cannot easily be negotiated with...

...one item Iraqi negotiators in Fallujah are hammering away with is the identification of all the foreign terrorists in the town. The terrorist bombings are very unpopular in Iraq, if only because they kill mostly Iraqis. The Sunni Arab gangs have lost some more popularity when it was discovered in the last week that so many terrorist operations had set up shop in Fallujah.

The truce in Fallujah is slowly falling apart...