One of Ours

Reuters

Absolutely idiotic. I don't believe a Marine general would be involved in this nonsense. Only a politician could have thought of this.

To restate my argument from a previous post:

There are a huge number of problems with this proposal.

1) This would be a mercenary army under the pay and command of the US government, which would consist primarily of anti-US personnel. As our mercenaries fighting for the US, any violations of the rules of war they engage in will be our responsibility. The loyalty of this unit will be highly suspect. Also, the Iraqi interim government is going to hate having another large and heavily armed militia running around the country that they do not control.

2) It will cost tens of millions of dollars, and take months to recruit, supply, equip, organize, and deploy. It wouldn’t be available for 5-6 weeks at an absolute minimum. The siege would just have to continue at its present level until then.

3) This will tend to reinforce the jihadist mythology that Americans are afraid to fight, and that whenever possible, we will always have others do their fighting and dying for them.

4) This will tend to reinforce the fears of friendly Iraqis that the US does not have the will to follow through, and that they will be abandoned to the whims of a potential warlord.

5) This will be seen as a capitulation by the US and a clear victory for the insurgents of Fallujah who will still effectively control the town. This will be rightly seen as the most significant defeat for the Marine Corps since the Korean war.

...this proposal makes no sense at all.

Reuters says:

...Jasim Mohamed Saleh said his new force would help police bring order and relieve a month-long siege that has cost hundreds of lives.

"We have now begun forming a new emergency military force," he told Reuters on Friday, saying people in Falluja "rejected" U.S. troops.

But Marine commanders insisted that their men, who pulled back from many positions during the day but fought guerrillas in others, would keep overall responsibility in the city and continue operations against suspected foreign Islamic militants.

They described Saleh's force of 1,000 or so former soldiers as an Iraqi battalion under U.S. control.

But Saleh, cheered by crowds waving the Saddam-era Iraqi flag as he drove through his home town in his old uniform, said local people wanted Falluja to be run by Iraqi forces only...

..."We should be very careful in thinking that this effort to build this Iraqi capacity will necessarily calm down the situation in Falluja tonight or over the next several days," said General John Abizaid, the U.S. Middle East commander.

Minutes later, explosions shook the eastern outskirts and a senior military spokesman said two Marines were killed by a car bomb near their base outside Falluja on Friday.

Marine commanders issued a statement saying: "The coalition objectives remain unchanged -- to eliminate armed groups, collect and positively control all heavy weapons and turn over foreign fighters and disarm anti-Iraqi insurgents."...

..."It's a mistake. People have lost lives in Falluja and now they die for nothing. But we have to give the Iraqis the chance to prove they can do it by themselves and we can still go back if it doesn't work," said Corporal Clint Burfort from Iowa.

A relative of Saleh said he had been chief-of-staff of a brigade of the elite Republican Guard before transferring to a regular infantry division. Senior officers were expected to be members of Saddam's Baath party...

...Iraqis who suffered oppression by Saddam's armed forces had mixed feelings about the move in Falluja.

Mahmoud Othman, a Kurd on the U.S.-appointed Governing Council, said it was worthwhile to end fighting. But he added: "It's not a good precedent...As usual, the Americans, without consulting anyone at all, have gone ahead with a policy to replace an earlier, failed policy...I'm not crazy about coming back to make a deal with someone from the Republican Guard."...

This is a tremendous defeat and humiliation for the Marine Corps.

The higher command obviously wants nothing to do with it, but they don't want to step on the toes of the local commanders.

Gen. Clayton has either lost his nerve, or lost his mind. In either case, I expect that he will soon be relieved for cause.

Totally Bizarre.

UPDATE: The Washington Post reports:

...It is not clear whether Conway conveyed the terms of the deal to his superiors in Baghdad and at the Pentagon, or even to leaders of the U.S. occupation authority. One person familiar with the deal said it took senior U.S. military and civilian officials in Baghdad by surprise. Because of the apparent lack of consultation, some officials said elements of the agreement, particularly the speedy troop withdrawal, may be tempered by the Pentagon or by the U.S. Central Command, which is in charge of operations in Iraq...

Outside the Beltway puts it clearly:

"Can you say “relieved of command,” boys and girls? I know you can...

...This is a baffling move—if indeed the move is being made as described by WaPo. While I understand the rationale—putting an Iraqi face on the security force might lessen hostility among the noncombatants—there’s nothing in the last twelve years of Iraqi history to indicate that these people will actually fight when it gets tough. Turning over the most critical ongoing operation to a hastily formed, ragtag military force whose motivation and loyalty is dubious is just absurd. The idea that a Marine 3-star would decide to do that on his own is unfathomable."

UPDATE II: Belmont Club has a great detailed story about the "Fallujah Protection Army":

...The obvious question of where the Fallujah Protection Army came from is only slightly less interesting than how General Saleh came to head it...

...But although the 82nd Airborne had been training the Iraqi Civil Defense Corps around Fallujah for months, the provenance of the Fallujah Protection Army is still unexplained. One of the most difficult operations of war is relieving a unit in contact with the enemy. It first of all requires the existence of the relief force. News accounts which suggest that this-still-to-be formed Fallujah Protection Army (FPA) will take over from the Marines, said to be evacuating "front line positions" within a few days, are only slightly less incredible than a report that Batman, the Hulk and Wolverine have joined the Navy to see the world. The news up this point has raised more questions than it has provided answers. The key points which may become clearer in the coming days are:

the relationship between the FPA and the forming Iraqi Army;

the relationship between the FPA and the enemy holed up in the 'Golan' neighborhood [of Faullujah];

the combat role and time-to-establishment of this force. [news reports say that the FPA has already taken over control of Fallujah!!!!]

The most likely scenario is that the FPA will be given charge over city areas free from heavy fighting and assigned general police duties. Those who perform meritoriously in this on the job training could be given regular ranks in the new Iraqi Army, a common relationship between paramilitaries and regulars. But forming militias, especially from local toughs, has always been a tricky business. There is plenty of money to raise militias against the enemy, but left unchecked, they can become lawless gangs unto themselves...

Good God is this screwed up! This story makes no sense at all. Who is going to do what to whom, and how and when? Either there is a big part of the story that is currently not known (my guess), or else Gen. Clayton is either a complete imcompetent or mentally unbalanced.

The mission is to reestablish law and order in Fallujah. Clayton has the authority to do anything he wants to achieve that. We are OK so far.

But how does the FPA do anything to make that goal more achievable? How does creating the FPA relieve the Marines of their current combat duties?

Instead, withdrawing and leaving the city to the hands of an entirely speculative group of militia appears like a CYA op in order to give up on the mission, and just leave the city in the hands of the gunmen. How can this be anything other than a surrender by the Marines without orders! Unless they were ordered to surrender! I don't know which would be worse.

There must be a rational explanation of some sort. I don't claim to be a military genius, but I do think I have a pretty good grasp of the issues, and I just can not figure this out. I don't see the endgame...

This situation just gets more bizarre by the moment.

With the weekly news cycle ending on Friday evening, I don't expect to hear a coherent explanation for this mess until Monday.

UPDATE III: From the New York Times:

The hastily improvised plan to send a small Iraqi force into Falluja, led by a former general in Saddam Hussein's army, is a last-ditch effort to avert a violent and politically charged urban battle, senior Pentagon officials and American commanders said Friday.

Privately, senior military officers expressed skepticism that dispatching an untested 900-man Iraqi battalion into Falluja would pacify the embattled city of nearly 300,000 people...

..."What we have there is an opportunity and not necessarily an agreement," said Gen. John P. Abizaid, the top American commander in the Middle East...

...General Abizaid, mindful of the disastrous performance of many American-trained Iraqi security forces earlier this month, cautioned that the new recruits would not "necessarily calm down the situation in Falluja tonight or over the next several days."...

...[a senior administration official] noted that, so far, none of the interventions by Falluja civic leaders, tribal sheiks and former military officers have resolved the standoff, and he warned that military action might ultimately be needed...

...just a week ago that Marine Corps commanders were on the brink of ordering an all-out offensive against what they estimated were 2,000 foreign fighters, former Hussein loyalists and other insurgents...

...if the Iraqi generals could form a battalion-size force in a relatively short time, it could enhance the chances for resolving the standoff. [If...Could...Maybe...good grief!]

...the Marine Corps, which will keep more than 3,000 troops around the city and remain poised for a major offensive should the Iraqi force fall apart under attack, senior military officials warned. "We cannot allow Falluja to be a safe haven for Baathist militants,"...

... General Conway said the new Iraqi unit, which he called the First Battalion of the Falluja Brigade, would be made up of "mostly former Iraqi Army officers and men," presumably from the Falluja area... [FYI: a battalion is 300-500 men MAX, not 900-1,100]

...Until the new Iraqi battalion demonstrates it can operate checkpoints and other positions, marines will continue to maintain a strong presence...

..."You can't expect in this part of the world for Iraqi security forces to fight for the United States of America," General Abizaid said in an interview last week. "They need to fight for Iraq, an Iraq that has a defined leadership that's legitimate, and that's broadly supported."[a leadership that will not exsist until after January 2005]

...Senior American officers said their goal was still to eliminate the insurgents in Falluja, collect all their heavy weapons and track down the killers of four American private security contractors...

I am sorry...

I will say it one last time: Hope is not a plan.

ORIGINAL ITEM: http://www.reuters.co.uk/