One of Ours

...I'm not sure whether any British prime minister has reached the kind of popularity and esteem Tony Blair has in America right now. Thatcher was revered, worshipped, marveled at by conservative Americans. But their liberal peers, despite a kind of fondness that one might feel for a political version of Mrs Slocombe, knew that she was a Bad Thing. Too close to Reagan. Bellicose. Nasty to the poor. Churchill is still regarded in most elite and popular circles as a kind of twentieth century deity in America. But Churchill is now myth, not reality.

Blair, on the other hand, has followings in both red and blue America. The Bush-loving heartland will never forget his intuitive emotional support for the U.S. after 9/11, nor his stedfastness in the war against the Taliban and Saddam. And the Volvo-driving, Starbucks-drinking, Cape Cod-vacationing elites revere his eloquence. The great American liberal bores of today, after they have spent a few minutes describing how they are so much more intelligent than this embarrassment of a president, will subsequently - especially to a displaced Brit like myself - launch into a wistful account of how they wished they had a president like Tony...

...Blair could do enormous damage to Bush were he to distance himself radically. Bush, of course, could only do wonders for Blair if he did the same in return...

...Both leaders believe that terrorism is the greatest threat to civilization; both believe that weapons of mas destruction if combined with terror could literally destroy that civilization; both believe that the crisis is deeper and wider than many others want to think about. Both believe that the war in Iraq - far from being a diversion from the war on terror - is, in fact, the most critical moment in that war.

And both believe they are winning....In several major theaters of war, the West has made enormous progress. The Taliban no longer exist as a regime and al Qaeda has been damaged severely. One of the most destabilizing forces in the Middle East - the disintegrating regime of Saddam Hussein - has been removed. The most aggressive terror-state of the previous two decades, Libya, has come in from the cold. The younger generation in Iran is risking their lives and limbs for change.

And the possibility of a representative, pluralist government in a critical Arab state is now in reach for the first time - and that possibility offers the only, yes, the only, chance for real and lasting progress against the forces of Islamo-fascism...The most dangerous representative of Islamicist theocracy in Iraq, Moqtadr al Sadr, facing the prospect of a moderate government, decided to play his only card and seize power by force. He was routed by American forces and isolated by moderate Shiites. He has now essentially surrendered any possibility of future power in the new Iraq and will be lucky not to be in prison before too long...

...We do not yet know the details of the battle in Fallujah...In a matter of days, the insurgents were killed in vast numbers in classic urban warfare. The ratio of U.S. casualties to insurgent casualties was roughly one to ten...both sides had made their point. Iraqi extremists had made it known they would make life very difficult for American troops and try very hard to create a new Vietnam. The Americans made it clear they wouldn't buckle under and could destroy the insurgents, if push came to shove...

...the president, rattled by his slide in the polls, will accede to Brahimi's recommendations, let go of American micro-management, and return to the critical work of training the Iraqi security forces and exterminating extremists in the run-up to elections. So the Americans look like they are conceding something while they are actually achieving what they want. And the Iraqis can construct a new government without seeming to look like American stooges. Win-win.

Given that prospect, why on earth would either Bush or Blair break up their partnership now?...

...Bin Laden offered a truce. And who offers truces? People who are losing the battle. The reason Bush and Blair are still together is that they can see the distant, still perilous, but tangible prospect across the horizon. It may take many more setbacks. It may not prevent future atrocities. But in the events of the last few weeks, they can begin to see that success is not impossible. It may even, if we keep our nerve, become a reality.