One of Ours

France's president Jacques Chirac is reported to be in a particular fix. He is under strong domestic pressure - from what the Guardian describes as "virtually the entire French political class" to call a referendum. The president, still smarting from a spanking in March's regional elections, and waiting with some trepidation for another in June's EU vote, is wary of offering voters yet another chance to tan his hide.

Blair's decision, however, might make a French referendum inevitable. Chirac will doubtless work overtime to capitalise on Britain's referendum as yet another example of Anglo-Saxon obstruction in Europe but may be unable to avoid calling a vote himself.

...France's opposition Socialists have published their manifesto for June's elections. Their strategy...includes several initiatives which run directly counter to the EU.

The EU, they claim, has been hijacked by free market liberals. It is the present government's struggle to balance EU-introduced reform with France's social identity that has caused much of the current unrest. They plan to build a "Europe of the left" which will scupper any liberal reform EU-wide.

[...]

"The pessimistic view is that the constitution is dead and buried if Britain has a referendum. Brits are likely to say no and that is likely to encourage others to do the same."

Other EU nations lined up to hold a referendum include the Czech Republic, Denmark, Luxembourg, Ireland, Holland, Portugal and Spain.

[...]

Eurocrats claim that if a smaller nation voted against the constitution, three courses are open. The nation could be booted out of the EU; the nation could be forced to vote again and again until it came up with an answer that pleased Brussels, as happened in Ireland during the Nice Treaty vote; or the EU could carry on as normal, with the other nations within the constitution and the dissident state remaining outside.

If a large country like Britain rejected the constitution, however, it could sink the treaty. It is hard to imagine Britain being shown the door at the EU - not least because it is one of the union's biggest contributors.

With ten new members, mostly cash-hungry, due to enter the union within a fortnight, booting rich nations out would not make sense - no matter how much it appeals to Brussels.

Moreover, a British rejection of the treaty would increase pressure on other states to ask their people what sort of Europe they want.

Closer integration is popular in Brussels but there is no evidence that it is popular with voters. Almost every time voters have been asked to approve EU integration, they have rejected it.

A British No might open the door to a complete reappraisal of what the European Union stands for. And this, perhaps, is what frightens Brussels most of all.