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"...even the wicked get worse than they deserve." - Willa Cather, One of Ours

Friday, May 21, 2004

Finally, Good News in Mideast

New York Times

Despite the killings in Gaza this week, some important good things are happening in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
...despite the killings in Gaza this week, some important good things are happening there.

The first good thing is that the Israeli security fence is turning out to be a boon to stability, rather than an irritant. There was plenty of evidence that the fence would help reduce terror. The fence separating Israel from Gaza has been highly effective at preventing terrorist incursions, and with large stretches of the West Bank fence already erected in the north, there's been a drop in suicide bombings...

...the fence is generally following the route Bill Clinton had proposed as a possible border between Israel and a future Palestinian state.

Makovsky counted the populations of all the villages and settlements on each side of the fence. He found that "fewer than 13,000 Palestinians — that is, less than 1 percent of the West Bank total — will actually be stranded on the Israeli side of the barrier." About 54,000 Israeli settlers, a quarter of the settler population, will be on the Palestinian side.

In other words, the fence leaves 99 percent of the West Bank Palestinians on a contiguous 87.5 percent chunk of West Bank land. That is a reasonably fair provisional border, which the two sides can modify if they ever get around to cooperating.

The Israelis initially planned a much more intrusive fence. But skillful diplomacy by Colin Powell, Condoleezza Rice, Stephen Hadley, Elliot Abrams and other U.S. officials led to modifications...

The second bit of good news is that Ariel Sharon's proposal to withdraw from Gaza and a few West Bank settlements has punctured the myth of Greater Israel and shifted the Israeli debate. Now discussion of the settlements centers not on the murky issues of security or history, but on the clearer issue of democracy.

An overwhelming Israeli majority opposes the far-flung settlements, so they are now seen as antidemocratic...It is only a matter of time before democratic institutions catch up with the will of the majority.

...as long as there is no Palestinian partner to negotiate with, Israel will have to withdraw, fight and coordinate: withdraw from most territories, fight Hamas and coordinate with Egyptian and Palestinian pragmatists to make sure that fundamentalists don't fill the vacuum left by retreating Israeli forces.

Don't look for glorious handshakes on the White House lawn. But we could see a series of grudging unilateral actions that will lead to less death.

These days, that's cause for giddy celebration.
When the wall is finished it will be like the situation between North and South Korea. The war won't be over, but the cease-fire may last a long time.

Israelis on one side of the wall and Palestinians on the other. That would seem like victory.

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