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"...even the wicked get worse than they deserve." - Willa Cather, One of Ours

Thursday, June 03, 2004

Changes in Policy on Iraq

Financial Times (London)
US starts to think the unthinkable about Iraq
...the administration is focusing on supporting the newly selected caretaker government as it tries to organise legislative elections by next January.

"There is no Plan B," a senior official said.

...Washington has come to realise it must confer real authority on the new government on June 30. But officials believe that France, Germany and Russia, leading opponents of the war, have been slow to recognise this US swing towards pragmatism.

Within the administration there is still a sense that the European detractors are not unhappy to see the US in trouble...

[...]

...defines failure as an abrupt withdrawal of most US troops while Iraq dissolves into internecine strife.

[...]

"The Europeans have already dropped Bush and they are now waiting out the election. They do not want to see a strategic failure for America in Iraq, because that would be very bad for them. But at the same time they don't want to do anything that confirms the Bush approach to the world."

[...]

...Mr Bush laid out what he thought the "unthinkable" would mean: "Every friend of America and Iraq would be betrayed to prison and murder as a new tyranny arose. Every enemy of America and the world would celebrate, proclaiming our weakness and decadence, and using that victory to recruit a new generation of killers."

The US has contingency plans, including the evacuation of some civilians from Baghdad, in case of an uncontrollable surge in violence. However, a military spokesman said that eventuality was "both unlikely and inconsistent with the reality on the ground".
I am often amazed about how clueless European elites are about US politics and policy making.

The above article is a case in point. FT is a realtively conservative paper but this article absolutely reeks of contempt for the Bush administration. They can not separate their abhorance for Bush with the realities in Iraq.

The idea that the Bush people would care what the Europeans think about our policy is laughable. The unanimity of opinion among journalistic and politcal elites (with rare exceptions like New Labor in Britain and the eastern European states) prevents them from having ann impact on the decision making of the Bush administration.

In fact, Bush had to go out of his way today to deny that he personally hates the French.

Blair is right about one thing. The Bush people will never take into consideration the views of anyone who states that they oppose the US on policy. Blair hasn't been able to significantly modify Bush's policies, but if he was with the others opposing Bush, he would have no say at all.

Bush is holding the whip hand here and the Europeans are unwilling to face their own political weakness.

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